Posts In: Analysis

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Kenya presidential election standoff

18th September 2017 Africa, Analysis

Serious doubts over the scheduled rerun on 17th October The main Kenyan presidential candidates — incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta and his challenger Raila Odinga — resumed…

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Boko Haram’s Split – Is the al-Barnawi faction as moderate as thought?

Since Boko Haram’s split in August 2016, the group’s faction led by Abubakar Shekau has received the largest share of media coverage, owing in large…

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Kenya – Presidential election standoff

4th September 2017 Africa, Analysis

On 1st September, the Kenyan Supreme Court voted 4-2 to invalidate the 8 August presidential poll results, ordering a re-run within 60 days. Main opposition…

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Le Maroc en quête d’un positionnement stratégique

29th August 2017 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

L’UA et la CÉDÉAO, des objectifs de taille Le retour du Maroc à l’Union Africaine (UA) en janvier 2017, après de longues années d’absence, a…

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Kenya 2017 Election Disputes

Kenya held a general election on 8th August. President Uhuru Kenyatta won with 54, 27% of the votes cast, as per results announced by the IEBC…

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Angola – 2017 Elections – Forecast

17th August 2017 Africa, Analysis

Angolans will be heading to the polls on 23 August, to elect the 220 Members of the National Assembly, while the candidate of the party…

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Nigeria and the Battle Against Boko Haram

15th August 2017 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

Why Has the Militant Group Not Been Defeated? In December 2016, the Nigerian government declared Boko Haram a defeated terrorist organization. After nearly six months…

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Briefing: Boko Haram vs. Al Shabaab

Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab are responsible for a large share of atrocities in Africa, and remain two of the most dangerous armed groups on the…

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Kenya – 2017 General Elections

1st August 2017 Africa, Analysis, Regional Document

On the 8th of August, Kenyan voters will take part in the sixth general elections since the end of the one-party state in 1991. Unsurprisingly,…

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Rwanda 2017 – Une stratégie de verrouillage à la veille des élections

27th July 2017 Africa, Analysis, Regional Document

Les électeurs rwandais se rendront aux urnes le 4 août prochain dans une élection dont le gagnant est presque connu en avance. Après avoir réussi…

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Angola – Elections 2017 – Possible Scenarios

Angolans will take part in the country’s fourth election on 23 August, with 220 seats in the National Assembly being up for grab, while the…

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Crise en république démocratique du Congo (RDC) : À quoi peut-on/doit-on s’attendre alors que la perspective d’élections fin 2017 semble s’éloigner chaque jour ?

Alors que la ténu des élections avant fin 2017 devient difficile à se concrétiser, l’impasse politique semble loin d’être résolue en RDC. Sur le plan…

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La crise libyenne – Les groupes armés

13th July 2017 Africa, Analysis, Regional Document

La chute du régime de Mouammar El Kadhafi (2011), avait favorisé l’implantation de groupes armés sur le territoire libyen. Avec des visées diverses, ces groupes…

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Kenya – General Elections – Possible Scenarios

On 8 August, Kenyans will be faced with the choice to either extend President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto’s second four-year term, or…

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Libye : Les principaux acteurs de la crise

La Libye vit une période de crise généralisée depuis la chute du colonel Kadhafi en 2011. De multiples groupes armés pullulent dans le pays, chacun…

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Mauritanie – Sous la pression politico-sociale et la menace terroriste, l’unité nationale doit être préservée

Confrontée à la menace de groupes djihadistes sévissant le long de sa frontière avec le Mali, la Mauritanie est censée développer une politique efficace pour…

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The Islamic State in Raqqa and Mosul

On June 11th, the international coalition launched a coordinated offensive against the Islamic State in the Syrian city of Raqqa, which is likely to fall…

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Crise au Burundi

Comment le régime de Nkurunziza parvient-il à se maintenir malgré l’isolement diplomatique ? Deux ans après le début de la crise burundaise, le pays semble…

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Rwanda : Le front patriotique rwandais

Quelle stratégie pour la conservation du pouvoir en 2017?   Le Rwanda vivra le 4 août 2017 une échéance importante dans sa vie politique: l’élection…

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Terrorisme au Sahel

Lutte contre la menace d’al-Qaïda dans la région du Maghreb-Sahel : Quels sont les défis actuels ? Le 2 mars 2017, plusieurs groupes djihadistes opérant…

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Kenya 2017 Elections – Short Note

Kenyans will head to the general elections on 8 August, with gubernatorial and presidential elections promising to be a tense affair. Raila Odinga, the NASA…

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Rwanda 2017 Elections – Short Note

10th May 2017 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

Rwandans will head to the polls on 4 August, seeking to consolidate the country’s electoral democracy after a brutal civil war ended in a genocide…

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Mali – Conférence d’entente nationale : quels obstacles à une énième tentative pour sortir de la crise ?

12th April 2017 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

Le 2 avril dernier, après une semaine de tractations, la conférence d’entente nationale « pour la paix, la réconciliation et l’unité » s’est clôturée à…

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République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) : Kabila en position de force suite à la fragmentation de l’opposition

10th April 2017 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

Après l’échec des négociations directes entre le camp Kabila et le Rassemblement, notamment sur le mode de désignation d’un Premier ministre du futur gouvernement de…

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Cameroon – Unrest in Anglophone Regions and the persistent Boko Haram Threat in Far North

20th March 2017 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

Unrest in Anglophone Regions and the Persistent Boko Haram Threat in Far North What should the Cameroonian Government do to Restore Stability and Security ?…

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The Syria Paper – An Insider’s View on a Global Crisis – part 1

1st Edition : The Astana process & life in government held areas Six years of war in Syria have had a devastating toll with almost…

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République Démocratique du Congo: Vers un blocage total des négociations ?

7th February 2017 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

The sudden death of Etienne Tshisekedi, President Kabila’s main rival and president of the Rassemblement (an opposition coalition), will have a significant impact on Congo’s…

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The Islamic State in West Africa.

26th January 2017 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

The Islamic State (IS) has sought to expand its neo-jihadist brand of militancy across the globe since its rapid expansion in Syria and Iraq. The…

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Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): 2017 Outlook

13th January 2017 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

With a persisting political impasse, and a fragile security framework in some parts of its central and eastern provinces, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)…

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12.12.2016_République Démocratique du Congo : Qui de Kabila ou de ses Adversaires Triompherait si ces Derniers Appelaient la Population à se Soulever le 19 Décembre prochain ?

12th December 2016 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

Le climat politique en République Démocratique du Congo demeure dans l’impasse suite à l’absence de consensus entre les principaux acteurs de l’opposition et le régime…

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Turkey – Why Erdogan denies the Lausanne Treaty

It is obvious that, by questioning the Treaty of Lausanne, Erdogan’s recent rhetoric could be considered a part of his internal political considerations. What is…

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07.11.2016 – The Art of Keeping Power: A Reflection on this Year’s Presidential Elections in Uganda, Congo-Brazzaville, Djibouti, Zambia, Tanzania, Gabon and Comoros

From Gabon to Uganda, through Congo-Brazzaville (among other notable examples), hope and enthusiasm were visible — especially among the urban youth — for decades-long ruling…

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Operation Mosul : The fear of a new humanitarian crisis.

The campaign for the recapture of Mosul, in Iraq was launched on the early morning of the 10th October while airstrikes and heavy artillery fire…

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Behind Morocco’s Al – Hoceima Protests

Thousands have protested this week in Morocco after the gruesome death of a fishmonger, who was crushed to death inside a garbage truck in the…

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Ivory Coast Referendum: Cleansing Scars of War

31st October 2016 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

Ivory Coast Referendum: Cleansing Scars of War Ivory Coast is the world’s largest producer of cocoa and cashews with an annual economic growth of 9%…

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Ghana 2016, Presidential Election: Another Tight Contest Expected

25th October 2016 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

Previously scheduled for November 7th, the presidential polls will be held on December 7th in Ghana. As the country surpasses an economic slowdown the incumbent…

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Risque de violences à Kinshasa suite à l’appel du Rassemblement à une journée “ville morte”, le Mercredi 19 Octobre

Alors que la Cour Constitutionnelle vient de trancher en faveur de la requête de la commission électorale (CENI) afin de reporter les scrutins à Avril…

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The New Cold War: The Russian plan for reshaping the balance of power.

“In the end, peace can be achieved only by hegemony or by balance of powers” H. Kissinger.  There has been indeed a long time since…

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Kabila au bord de la Prolongation de son règne: L’opposition détient-elle le dernier mot ?

Les événements des 19 et 20 septembre derniers semblent avoir précipité le régime dans un tourbillon de répercussions négatives à son encontre. Emmenant, l’opposition à…

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RDC. Émeutes meurtrières à Kinshasa.

20th September 2016 Africa, Analysis, Other Solutions

A Kinshasa, les manifestations pour demander le départ du Président Kabila à la fin de son dernier mandat prennent une tournure désastreuse. Plusieurs quartiers de…

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Greece. Fire in Moria refugee camp

Following the fire at the largest refugee camp in the island of Lesvos, there is a distinct lack of clarity with regards to the reason…

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Burkina Faso Overview of the Current Situation

One shot analysis designed by the OSC research team covering Burkina Faso’s current political, social and security dynamics. With the ongoing volatility and spill over…

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Kabila à la Fin de son Dernier Mandat : Le Jeune Président est-il en train de Gagner la Bataille Politique pour son Maintien au Pouvoir ?

25th June 2016 Africa, Analysis

November’s elections in RDC, Kabila at the end of his last madate. ( in French) Alors qu’il est évident qu’il n’y aura pas d’élections en…

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Comparative Analysis of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State

Common features and distinctions of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State. While there is a common conception that as both groups share much in common and both…

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Short Note: Beirut Municipal Elections

8th of May Beirut Municipal Elections. “The Beirut municipality alone could improve the lives of close to 2 million people, if it were effective.” –…

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Post-sanction Iran: What has changed?

Iran has been struggling with consistently high unemployment and inflation rates since the implementation of the UN and US sanctions against the country. However, since…

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Le Burundi a une année de la crise

9th May 2016 Africa, Regional Document

Burundi: one year after the crisis, the instability seems persistent (in French). Ce rapport a pour objectif de faire une mise à jour sur la…

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The Lake Chad Basin’s Interminable Insurgency: 2015

23rd February 2016 Africa, Diagrams

This visualisation shows us the Lake Chad Basin region’s tumultuous year 2015. 1603_Boko_Haram TimeLine

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Analyse de Contexte – Burundi (in French)

14th January 2016 Africa, Regional Document

Below is our context analysis on Burundi (in French).   1601 – Analyse de contexte Burundi

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Africa Great Lakes Region Actors and Interactions

8th January 2016 Africa, Diagrams

Please see below our visualisation of actors and interactions in the Great Lakes region.   1601 – Africa Great Lakes Region Actors and Interactions

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